Climate change and risks for Australian cultural collections
Maps and Workflows Resource
Amanda Pagliarino email@example.com
Ainslee Meredith firstname.lastname@example.org
In 2020, Amanda Pagliarino and Ainslee Meredith published the climate projection and cultural heritage paper, Mapping climate change and risks for Australian cultural collections (AICCM Bulletin, Vol. 41/1, pp. 3-26).
In this paper the climate change variables of temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and fire weather are used in conjunction with spatial methodologies to produce maps that overlay locations of Australian national, state and regional cultural heritage collections with climate change risks. Three national maps and nine regional maps are published in the paper. The paper also addresses climate-induced changes in the biological risk of insect pests and mould.
The purpose of this wiki Map and Workflow Resource is to provide access to an extensive catalogue of national and regional climate change projection and collection location maps that further support the published paper.
The overlay maps produced as part of this research illustrate potential future climate scenarios at short-term (2030) and long-term (2090) timescales, using two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), at two different emission scenarios corresponding to continued intermediate-level emissions (RCP4.5) and increased high-level emissions (RCP8.5). Mid-term (2050) projections and maps are addressed in the AICCM Bulletin paper however the authors chose not to include mid-term resources due to the large number of maps that needed to be produced.
180 national and regional maps showing surface and maximum daily temperatures and long-term humidity climate change projections have been uploaded to this wiki resource. The maps are ordered alphabetically by geographic location. Each location is represented by the two emission pathways – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the two timescales – short-term and long-term.
For a full description of the research and mapping methodology please refer to Pagliarino, A and Meredith, A 2020, Mapping climate change and risks for Australian cultural collections, AICCM Bulletin, Vol. 41/1, pp. 3-26.
Collection type datasets used in this research include (i) national and state-owned collections and (ii) regional art galleries associated with local councils.
Definitions have been drawn from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) website and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website.
Annual average near-surface relative humidity – The average daily relative humidity measured at a given distance from the ground for each month and as an annual statistic, calculated over all years of record.
Annual maximum daily temperature – The average daily maximum air temperature for each month and as an annual statistic, calculated over all years of record.
Annual mean surface temperature – The average daily temperature measured just above the surface of the ground for each month and as an annual statistic, calculated over all years of record.
Radiative forcing – The measure of the influence of climatic factors on the radiant energy directed towards the earth’s surface. This is a measure defined by the IPCC.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) – Scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases, aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use / land cover. The word representative signifies that each RCP provides only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific radiative forcing characteristics. The term pathway encompasses the long-term concentration levels and the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome.
RCP4.5 – An intermediate scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040 and then decline.
RCP8.5 – A greenhouse gas emissions scenario that sees continued rise throughout the 21st century. This scenario is thought to be less likely, however it remains a useful reference point because climate change is part of dynamic and complex systems and the rate of warming, and systems response and feedback is not yet fully understood.
Statement for the interpretation of maps including explanatory notes and legends
Maps were created to show the potential impact of factors associated with climate change on collections in various locations across Australia.
Climate change projections developed by the international scientific community show predicted changes to three variables: mean surface temperature (°C); average maximum annual daily temperature (°C); and relative humidity (RH). Two time periods are shown on the maps, corresponding to the short-term future (2030) and long-term future (2090). Each time period was analysed at two RCPs: RCP4.5, to simulate intermediate levels of emissions, and RCP8.5, to simulate high emissions. The climate model applied in this study is the ACCESS1-0 model, produced by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. Please refer to the published paper for a full methodology.
Two sets of collections were mapped: (a) national, state and territory collections run by the Commonwealth and state and territory governments; and (b) regional art galleries associated with local councils. No regional maps were created for the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory, as there are no municipal councils in the ACT, and no regional art galleries linked to local councils in the NT that could be identified by the authors. Maps of collections in Queensland are split into northern and southern area maps to enable detail to be shown.
Collection location data was compiled in 2019 and reflects the data available at the time. There is the chance that some collections have moved, changed names or closed, or that new collections may have opened since that are not included on these maps.